According to the National Board of Realtors, there are 7,958,762 persons of voting age in the state of North Carolina. Of that group 77% or 6,137,984 are registered voters. Realtors make up 25,827 of that group, and as a group 84% are registered voters. Is there a reason why Realtors are registered in higher percentages than the state population as a whole? I would argue that there is. Realtors livelihood depends upon sucessful advocacy for the mortgage interest deduction and in their fight against transfer taxes, and I would argue that the health of the housing industry is crtical to job creation in this country.
The National association of Realtors estimates that five hundred jobs are created for every thousand existing homes sold. On top of that each home sale contributes about $60,000 to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)! As the national politicans pontificate about jobs, jobs, jobs; maybe one of the points of focus should be improving the housing market. Dodd/ Frank has dramatically slowed the issuance of mortgages and poltical and economic uncertainty has checked enthusiasm.
This election provides clear choices. Please VOTE.
Author: Scot
Eight More Signs that Housing is finally Recovering
Starting to sound like a broken record, but:
1. Housing prices are starting to rise.
2. Foreclosures have slowed.
3.Inventories of For Sale homes is decreasing in both Charlotte and across the country.
4. Mortgage rates are historically low, but banks remain overly cautious.
5. Housing starts rose 6.9% in June.
6. Home builders are getting back in the market.
7. Rents are soaring to 10 year highs.
8. Thanks to record low interest rates and falling prices, affordability is at record highs.
from “Finally, its time to buy a house” 8/1/12 Wall Street Journal
May 2012
Welcome to the Scot Williams Realty blog. May 2012
More Charlotte, NC fun facts. More math that points to a strong future for Charlotte housing, and argues that NOW is the right time to buy.
Charlotte, NC urban area was the fastest growing urban area over 1 million people in the US from 2000 to 2010. During that decade Charlotte grew 64.6% to 1,249,449 while the US urban population grew 12%. Charlotte’s urban area shouldn’t be confused with the often quoted Charlotte MSA (1.75 million in 2010 ) that includes portions of nine counties.
Charlotte historically had a reputation as a transportation hub. It now claims to be the second largest financial center in the nation, home to Bank of America Corporation as well as host to major operations of Ally Financial, Citi, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Charlotte is also growing as an energy hub, thanks to the growth of Duke Energy, the nation’s second largest utility, and a slew of engineering and design service operations lead by Areva, Fluor, The Shaw Group, and Siemens.
So…….Charlotte has a rapidly growing population base. A base that even during the “worst” of the recession from 2008 to 2010 grew at 25,000 per year; and a housing supply shrinking at 25 to 27%. These facts compel us to remind our potential buyer readers that when things do turn around they are likely to do so quickly bringing tighter inventory and higher prices.
January 2012
Welcome to the Scot Williams Realty blog.
Over the last several months we have started to note our sense that the Charlotte market had bottomed and was beginning to change course. The information provided here in, compiled from Carolina Multiple Listing Servivces, Inc. and the National Association of Realtors, give credence to those notes. The local market is on the mend and the recovery is starting. If you have been waiting, now is the time to buy.
2011 vs. 2010
New Listings -19.1% 72,362
Pending Sales +3.3% 38,667
Closed Sales +2.5% 40,276
Median Sales Price -1.6% $152,500
Average sales Price -3.5% $200,351
List to Close (days) +5.4% 152
Months’ Supply -27% 9.1
Pct. of Original price -0.6% 89.4%
Inventory of Homes -24.6% 17,581
Reported by the National Association of Realtors
(From Moody’s Analytics)
Existing home sales are expected to rise 12% in 2012
New home sales will soar 74%
New home starts will increase 37%
(From Fannie Mae’s December Housing Survey)
With mortgage rates at historic lows and housing affordability high, 71% of Americans say that now is a good time to buy, and an increasing number expect prices to rise in 2012.
Looking at these numbers, we only take pause in the increase in list to close of 152 days. Much of that period has be attributed to the deep ression that lingers, but some is thanks to an “uncomfortable” lending enviroment in which confusing credit demands and new regulation and/or enforcement has slowed funding.
Prepared for funding challenges, 2012 can be a great time to buy!
Making Practical Sense out of Green Building Standards
December 2011
Welcome to the Scot Williams Realty blog. We hope you will find us informative and at times fun. We look forward to hearing from you.
Residential energy use causes 21% of Greenhouse emissions, more than that blamed on cars. Concern about the quality of our future has brought focus on Green building in North Carolina and across the country. This blog is not intended to initiate debate, but to bring clarity to an important focus in construction. Last month we wrote of some easy updates for existing homes, the focus here are construction ideas that with a little green, can make you some Green.
Green homes can be identified/ certified by four methods with many similarities:
Energy Star Homes (EPA guidelines with third party verification)
NC Healthybuilt Homes ( an inclusive laundry list of items that a builder gets awarded points for completing from site management to material us )
Leed for Homes (design and efficency list)
National Green Building Standards for Homes
These are different certifications but have a common goal of making homes 20 to 30% more efficient and lowering their impact on the enviroment.
Borrowing from each of these programs, here are some practical ideas that can be easily implemented in new construction but can also add efficiency to existing homes:
Energy Efficiency
Effective insulation- Spray polyurethane Foam (SPF) is a very effective product because it fill holes made for wiring and plumbing, fills holes often missed in caulking, and it doesn’t compress as found in areas of traditional insulation. SPF is best used in new construction because the vapors given off by the foam can be toxic. In new constuction those vapors have time to disipate.
High preformance windows- windows are rated as Energy Star just like appliances.
Tight construction and ducts- HVAC ducts can be taped to prevent leakage particularly around boots. There are also whole house wrap products like Tyvac that can help lower energy loss.
Efficent heating, cooling, and heating of hotwater- Heating water accounts for approximately 15% of a homes energy use. Tank-less hot water heaters are heater’s that only heat water as it is needed, instead of all the time as with a traditional (tank ) heater. Heating 20 to 80 gallons of water constantly produces standby energy losses. It is estimated that tank-less systems produce 45% to 60% saving vs. minimum standard equipment.
High efficiency HVAC systems should also be part of any new construction or renovation plan. Most HVAC contractors use computer modeling to effectively map the most efficent size and seer for a residence.
Energy Star appliances- Appliances are responsible for 20% of the energy use in a typical home, so improvement here can produce dramatic savings.
Use of CFLs in lighting generates 75% less heat when lighting a home plus they last up to ten times longer than a traditional light bulb.
Use of renewable building products should also be a key consideration. Wood products like bamboo and pine are classified as renewable and thus enviromentally sound to use. Some builders are also using recycled products and/or those salvaged during demolition or renovation. Old mantles, savaged marble, old oak doors, and wood floors are all being reused.
Water Efficiency
Water efficient plumbing fixtures- Many new plumbing fixtures offer efficient flushing systems and water flow inhibiters. Toto offers some cool products for the bath, and if you want to take it up a notch, rain water collection systems can be used in irrigation.
Just as a point of interest, typical hot water usuage in a home:
Shower 37%
Clothes washer 26%
Dishwasher 14%
Bath 12%
Sinks 11%
Learn more at energystar.gov
Energy Busters that will reduce your energy usage and costs for winter
Welcome to the Scot Williams Realty blog. Hopefully you will find us informative, helpful, and at times fun. We look forward to hearing from you.
These do it yourself tips can produce cost savings imediately, and will make you a greener neighbor, with nothing more than a weekend trip to the local hardware store.
1. Reclaim the heat that is flowing from your furnace into your attic and basement/ crawlspace instead of your living room! Buy Mastic and metallictape along with a cheap paint brush. Find areas of exposed ductwork in your attic and basement, then turn on your furnace and notice all the holes and leaks at joints where heated air is escaping. Pull back the insulation around the boots, where ductwork meets the vents and tape around the metal box to seal. Tape all holes and joints in the ducts, then apply Mastic on top with a paint brush. This will increase the heat entering your living space. Cost: about $20
2. Pull Down Attic Stairs: Huge loss of heat thru the cracks around the pull down stairs. Purchase a sealable cover (online best bet) about $200, but the cover reduces the chimney effect of hot air being drawn up into your cold attic space.
3. Wood burning fireplaces: They are pretty but HUGE heat suckers! When the fireplace is not in use, place a piece of Plexiglas in front of the opening to eliminate the heat loss during off hours.
4. Hot Water Heaters: Wrap them up! Water heating consumes 15% of the electricity and 25% of the natural gas in residences annual usage. Insulating the heater with a thermal wrap will reduce the heat lost while the water is hot and sitting in the tank awaiting use. The amount of heat lost in standby can be 20-60% of the energy it took to heat that water and keep it hot. So buy the appropriate insulation and apply it carefully.
5. Water saving shower heads: Once installed they will reduce heat needed to heat the water plus will have water saving benefits. Easy to buy, easy to install.
6. TURN OFF LIGHTS WHEN LEAVING THE ROOM: significant savings when electricity is used only when in a room. Family members can take a long time to retrain, but it can be done.
7. Replace the old light bulbs with CFL’s. They do not loss heat like traditional bulbs and they last 10 X longer. They now offer varied color ratings like the old light bulbs.
These are just a few things that can make a difference in your pocketbook and help the enviroment at the same time. It just takes a weekend and some friends to help!
Contributing writer Nan Williams
Planning a renovation or new contstruction, next month we will offer some sexier but pratical ideas that can be implemented to make us Greener.
August Update
welcome to the Scot Williams Realty blog. hopefully you will find us informative, helpful, and maybe at time fun. We look forward to your comments.
August Update
Sales are improving, and supply and demand factors are pointing to a recovering market!
Quick Facts
From the National Association of Realtors August report
Sales of all existing homes rose 7.7% in August vs July and posted 18.6% gains from August 2010*. In the South, sales were up 16.9% year to year.
From the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association
Locally, week after week we continue to see increased pending sales, decreased listings, and decreasing inventory levels:
For the week ending 9/3 Change in new listings -20.5%
Change in pending sales +8.8%
Change in inventory -22%
For the week ending 9/10 Change in new listings -18.5%
Change in pending sales +18.3%
Change in inventory -22.3%
Though home prices react to more than supply and demand, once job growth begins and consumer confidence levels improve, Charlotte home prices should soar.
Don’t wait to read it in the press. The time to buy is NOW.
*based on transactions closed
July 2011 Market Update
Welcome to the Scot Williams Realty blog. hopefully you will find us imformative, helpful, and maybe at times fun. We look forward to your comments.
As I’m sure you are all well aware the real estate market remains unsettled. The good news is that numbers posted in July in the Charlotte Region seem to continue to signal improvement. New Listiings are down 27.1% in July vs. July 2010, 20.2% year to date; and that trend has continued in both the week ending 7/30 and that ending 8/6/11. Pending sales increased 20.5% in the week ending 7/30, and closed sales in July incresed 9.7%. This combination of trends has reduced available inventory 20.4% to 22,009 homes. We are not out of the woods yet, average sales price was down 1.5% in July year to year; and average days on the market of 150 is still high historically matching its average over the last twelve months.
Select Area Results for July 2011 (From research provided by The Charlotte Regional Realtor Association)
Area 04 (includes Eastover and Cotswold)
New Listings in July -37.9%, year to date -25%
Closed sales in July +3.5%, year to date +5.8%
Average price in July -13%, year to date less than 1% change
Area 05 (includes Myers Park and Southpark )
New listings in July -25.5%, year to date -18.1%
Closed sales in July +12.9%, year to date less than 1% change
Average price in July -1.7%, year to date -1.9%
Area 06 ( Dilworth)
New listings in July -27.5%, year to date -21.6%
Closed sales in July +34.4%, year to date +11.5%
Average price in July +15.8%, year to date +3.5%
Area 99 (Center City)
New Listings in July -11.1%, year to date -36.7%
Closed sales in July +15.4%, year to date +12.2%
Houses are selling at more affordable prices, and as this trend continues, inventory will evaporate and you will see a revival in construction and with it all the secondary supply chains that the local economy depends on. Forget the voatility in Washington and the stock and comodity markets, NOW seems to be the time to buy.
Look for our story on Green technology for residential construction after the August update.
The State of the Market
Folks it’s time to buy again. After a couple of years of declining values, Charlotte’s housing market is poised to rebound. “What?” Has the state of Charlotte’s housing gotten you totally confused? Have you been hearing war stories about declining prices? You are not alone. It has been a long and messy road. Politicians have no clue what to do other than to blame each other and “Bank greed”, plan the demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and argue over the fate of the mortgage interest deduction. Even Robert Schiller and Karl Case, the creators of the Case Shiller indices are offering contrasting views. Shiller thinks we have a chance for an additional double digit drop in housing prices, while Karl Case is arguing that the lack of home building is reeving an engine that makes him very optimistic about the future of the economy.
From Charlotte MLS, March 2011 was essentially flat verses March 2010 at 1903 homes sold. Compared to 1900 in March 2010. The average closing price was down 1.6%, March to March; and 76% of homes sold in March 2011 were priced under $250,000. 54.2 percent of listed homes closed in 121+ days. On a little more positive note, in areas 4, 5, 6, and 99 a total of 323 homes sold in March totaling $97,231,735.
From the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales are up 3.7% in March over February marking six consecutive monthly rises in existing home sales.
Here is my take:
Finally Charlotte is experiencing job growth. We continue to have positive net migration to the area and we can believe that the banks will survive. Charlotte has gotten the message that it needs some new corporate heroes- enter Duke Energy, Shaw industries, and Electrolux among others. It is cheaper to own than rent. Mortgage rates are starting to move up off a historically low base, and most importantly what looked like a glut of housing a couple of years ago will very shortly look like a shortage of housing.
- Unemployment is showing signs of abating. Unemployment in the Charlotte Metro area dropped to 10.7% in February from 11.2% in January according to the NC Employment Security Commission. In Mecklenburg County unemployment in February was 10.2%. North Carolina’s rate dropped to 9.7% in February down from 9.8% in January and 11.4% in February of last year.
- According to the latest census numbers since 2000 the population in the Charlotte Metro area has grown 32.1%. Additionally Moody’s Analytics published in July 2010 show the Charlotte Metro Statistical Region growing at a rate of more than 2% per year thru 2014.
- There are now 2.3 trillion in bank assets based in Charlotte, 2nd only to New York City. Welcome US Bank, Ally Bank and Wells Fargo.
- Duke Energy, with its recent acquisition of Progress Energy is now the largest utility in the country, and maybe more importantly their management group lead by Jim Rogers has taken the lead in the discussion and development of alternative energy. The Shaw Group, Inc., the Louisiana based company that moved its power group here a couple of years ago just announced that it is looking for up to 350,000 square feet to consolidate and expand its presence in Center City Charlotte. Combined with Piedmont Natural Gas, SPX and Siemens Energy Service Division Charlotte is emerging as a national energy hub.
- There is arguably a new “affordability” in home ownership. According to the National Association of Realtors March housing affordability index on a medium priced home is 13% of gross household income. The lowest % since they started keeping records in 1970. Additionally from a new report by Deutsche Bank that measures affordability in two ways- as a percentage of income and the cost of owning verses renting- it can be argued that the foundation has been laid for “dramatic” recovery. Deutsche bank analysis finds that home owners are paying 9.8% of their income in after-tax mortgage, tax, and insurance down from 17.2 % in 2007. This is the lowest number in their data base going back to 1999. The second measure finds that in 28 out of 54 major markets, it’s cheaper to own than it is to rent the same house, thanks to fairly dramatic decreases in home prices in many cases up to 30% (much of our market would qualify) and continued low interest rates. These factors may not move the Charlotte market tomorrow and as it moves it is likely to be uneven, but they will have a positive effect soon.
- The Catalyst apartment tower just sold for a record price $103,300,000 or approximately $223,500 per apartment. Wasn’t that 462 unsold, center city condominiums that were going to be a drag on the condo sales market? There has been almost no new construction in Charlotte in the last couple of years, with good reason from foreclosures and empty inventory to bank re-capitalization, but when the market starts to come back it will take a good three years to refill the new construction pipeline. Again from the Deutsche Bank Metrostudy report that covers 2/3 of US markets, new construction inventory stands at less than 23% of the 2006 levels.
- The stock market has recovered much of its 2008 losses- half of the wealth effect is back in place.
Nationally according to the National association of Realtor’s Index pending home sales in March are up 5.1% and up 10% in the South. These figures are off of a weak base, but they are headed up. We are out there every day and can feel the change. As per Jarvis Slade Christie’s managing director of the Americas, “It’s the new financial psychology, we’ve had two years of hesitation, the sellers are realistic, the buyers confident and cautious, but Americans are starting to feel better.” There is more cleaning up to do. In February, Case Schiller Home Price Index of the 20 largest metro areas, reports Charlotte Metro home prices down (1.2%) from January, and down (5%) since February 2010 with a price index of 110.21.
Case Shiller home price Index
Selected Metro Areas Feb 11’ change from Jan change from 2010
Charlotte 110.21 (1.2%) (5.0%)
Atlanta 99.45 (.5%) (5.8%)
Miami 138.44 (2%) (6.2%)
New York 165.19 (.5%) (3.1%)
Washington 181.33 (.1%) +2.7
Composite 139.27 (1.1%) (3.3%)
The indexes have a base value of 100 in January 2000; so a current index of 110 equals a 10% appreciation since January 2000 for a typical home in the metro area.
The Charlotte market has become price driven, but the list of examples of “right priced” successes is growing rapidly. There are Buyers out there looking for value priced superior product. Condominiums are selling in Dilworth, Southend, and Center City in volume when priced 30% below their original new construction levels. By mid-April we were seeing multiple offers on houses in Myers Park and Eastover priced at levels 30% off peak. These new prices will get woven into the market and become the comparable standards for appraisals. Then demand can return in volume. Once that happens there should be a shift in demand stress forcing rising prices.
Here is a neighborhood summary for 2011 YTD
Market Activity by MLS Area/ Month Single Family and Condominiums/ Townhomes
| # Active Listings | Avg. Listing Price | # New Listings | Avg. Listing Price | # Sold Listings | Avg. Selling Price | % of List | |
| Area 4/1 Southeast Mecklenburg including Eastover | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 201 | $697,450 | 32 | $391,063 | 10 | $333,130 | 93 |
| Feb-11 | 204 | $680,900 | 32 | $614,997 | 9 | $497,956 | 92 |
| Mar-11 | 220 | $688,900 | 38 | $559,784 | 15 | $563,563 | 94.4 |
| Apr-11 | 233 | $558,904 | 44 | $471,166 | 11 | $452,591 | 94 |
| Area 4/2 including Cotswold | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 214 | $330,869 | 38 | $349,011 | 11 | $375,955 | 90 |
| Feb-11 | 208 | $339,438 | 33 | $396,967 | 8 | $227,019 | 94.5 |
| Mar-11 | 233 | $341,519 | 52 | $289,810 | 14 | $389,261 | 91 |
| Apr-11 | 253 | $326,694 | 51 | $320,775 | 13 | $290,608 | 93.5 |
| Area 5/1 including Myers Park | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 376 | $574,781 | 56 | $1,007,200 | 18 | $564,259 | 89 |
| Feb-11 | 376 | $565,617 | 48 | $717,450 | 12 | $689,242 | 85 |
| Mar-11 | 429 | $578,922 | 90 | $946,650 | 28 | $489,127 | 90 |
| Apr-11 | 439 | $594,325 | 69 | $632,641 | 21 | $548,607 | 94 |
| Area 5/2 including Foxcroft | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 161 | $614,754 | 17 | $449,394 | 2 | $412,500 | 93 |
| Feb-11 | 168 | $619,128 | 19 | $568,737 | 8 | $439,313 | 96 |
| Mar-11 | 186 | $600,210 | 37 | $392,643 | 12 | $541,742 | 86 |
| Apr-11 | 189 | $656,598 | 35 | $756,500 | 12 | $565,433 | 87.5 |
| Area 6/1 including Dilworth & Southend | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 299 | $262,071 | 56 | $280,317 | 19 | $251,033 | 94 |
| Feb-11 | 306 | $268,145 | 55 | $316,512 | 17 | $182,457 | 94 |
| Mar-11 | 338 | $274,197 | 73 | $282,954 | 35 | $239,932 | 93 |
| Apr-11 | 323 | $281,966 | 61 | $297,692 | 20 | $198,955 | 96.5 |
| Area 99 Center City Charlotte | |||||||
| First Ward | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 36 | $223,659 | 3 | $104,732 | 2 | $183,500 | 91 |
| Feb-11 | 32 | $237,809 | 3 | $260,400 | 3 | $181,800 | 98 |
| Mar-11 | 32 | $214,650 | 7 | $149,514 | 4 | $219,000 | 89 |
| Apr-11 | 31 | $217,267 | 8 | $224,549 | 1 | $171,050 | 1.01 |
| Second Ward | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 20 | $837,355 | 2 | $579,500 | 1 | $435,000 | 1 |
| Feb-11 | 20 | $838,365 | 2 | $1,127,500 | 1 | $460,000 | 100 |
| Mar-11 | 19 | $838,068 | 0 | 2 | $337,500 | 99.5 | |
| Apr-11 | 16 | $752,150 | 0 | 2 | $774,000 | 95 | |
| Third Ward | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 58 | $339,053 | 8 | $264,961 | 2 | $203,000 | 1 |
| Feb-11 | 60 | $327,345 | 8 | $249,099 | 4 | $206,625 | 91 |
| Mar-11 | 63 | $326,719 | 12 | $279,725 | 2 | $304,500 | 81 |
| Apr-11 | 59 | $286,412 | 8 | $262,975 | 5 | $197,240 | 90 |
| Fourth Ward | |||||||
| Jan-11 | 118 | $316,171 | 15 | $279,607 | 5 | $251,980 | 94 |
| Feb-11 | 122 | $311,202 | 20 | $257,230 | 2 | $181,000 | 98 |
| Mar-11 | 143 | $309,813 | 35 | $305,440 | 16 | $290,613 | 97 |
| Apr-11 | 120 | $318,525 | 17 | $375,459 | 4 | $194,950 | 97.5 |
| # Active Listings | Avg. Listing Price | # New Listings | Avg. Listing Price | # Sold Listings | Avg. Selling Price | % of List | |
| Jan-11 | 201 | $697,450 | 32 | $391,063 | 10 | $333,130 | 93 |
| Feb-11 | 204 | $680,900 | 32 | $614,997 | 9 | $497,956 | 92 |
| Mar-11 | 220 | $688,900 | 38 | $559,784 | 15 | $563,563 | 94.4 |
| Apr-11 | 233 | $558,904 | 44 | $471,166 | 11 | $452,591 | 94 |
“Based on information from the Carolina Multiple Listing Services, Inc. for the period Jan. 2011 thru April 2011 Areas 4/1, 4/2, 5/1, 5/2, 6/1 and 99.”
We welcome your comments. Visit us again for a discussion on Green Technologies.